An infrastructure fund looked to expand its portfolio by acquiring a series of wind farms in the North Sea. The seller’s financial models projected consistent high yields and minimal maintenance costs for the next decade. Given the harsh marine environment, our client suspected these forecasts were overly optimistic. They needed an independent, technical assessment to determine if the asset’s physical condition matched its financial promise.

We initiated a strategic validation process that combined historical weather data with a forensic review of maintenance logs. The patterns we uncovered contradicted the seller’s smooth projections: blade erosion was accelerating faster than anticipated, and turbine downtime was increasing year-over-year. Our analysis proved that maintenance expenses would likely double within five years, severely impacting the asset’s internal rate of return. This intelligence allowed the fund to correct the valuation model before closing. They proceeded with the acquisition only after factoring in the true cost of ownership, securing a risk-adjusted price that protected their investors.